R.K. Ohri, IPS (Retd)
During last three decades the problem of continuous infiltration of Bangladeshis into Assam, West Bengal, Bihar, Orissa and almost all north-eastern States has assumed a weird shape. The alien infiltrators are now swarming all over the country and their massive presence is writ large across dozens of cities including Delhi, Mumbai and even far away Coimbatore and Chennai in Tamil Nadu. They have spread out even to many small towns of states like Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. For the last five decades the successive central governments have remained focused solely on the Jammu & Kashmir imbroglio, and in the process willfully ignored our eastern flank. Unfortunately throughout the last three decades India's political leadership has failed to realize that much more than Kashmir, the Bangladeshi influx has the potential to tear asunder the socio-political fabric of India. The north-eastern region will be the first victim of this ‘tectonic tsunami’ the reverberations of which are now being felt all over the country.
Gigantic Dimensions of Illegal Infiltration
On a conservative estimate, the total number of Bangladeshi infiltrators and their progeny presently living in India could be anything close to 5 crores. At a national convention on demography held at New Delhi in April 2005, quite a few participants held the view that by now the total number of Bangladeshi infiltrators and their progeny could be as high as 5 crores. And if we include their fast multiplying progeny, too, the figure may be still higher !The mind-boggling dimensions of the problem were lucidly presented by Bibhuti Bhusan Nandy (a retired R&AW officer) in a research study titled 'Space Invaders' published in the Hindustan Times of February 14, 2003. In his well researched article Nandy highlighted the fact that an analysis of Bangladesh's 1991 census data undertaken by Sarifa Begum (a demographer of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, Dhaka) revealed that the 1991 census figure of 104.7 million population of Bangladesh disclosed a clear shortfall of nearly 10 million people. The actual headcount during census 1991 was at enormous variance with the estimate of 116-117 million for the decade projected by the UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) disclosing a huge shortfall of 13 million people. It was found to be lower than even Bangladesh government's own moderate estimate of 112-113 million populations for 1991 census. After a detailed study, Sarifa Begum, a well known economist, attributed the "missing millions" to the unregistered 'out migration'. Through her well researched analysis of the 1991 census data of Bangladesh, Sarifa Begum established that between 1981-1991 nearly 14 to 15 million Bangladeshis had entered India. In another context she had further estimated that nearly 3.5 million people had "disappeared" from East Pakistan between 1951 and 1961, while another 1.5 million had possibly entered India between 1961 and 19741. Thus as per Sarifa Begum's estimate the total number of out migrated or missing Bangladeshis till 1991 comes to 19 million to which must be added another 2 million Bangladeshi citizens, mostly residents of the districts bordering India, whose names were removed from that country's electoral rolls between 1995-96. Obviously those two million Bangladeshis whose names were struck off the electoral rolls could not have migrated to China or Australia. They just stealthily entered India. That makes a grand total of 21 million people who had managed to infiltrate into India by the year 1996. And since then the infiltration has continued unabated. During the last 12 years millions more must have infiltrated into India. These figures based on analytical studies conducted by Sarifa Begum, a Bangladeshi Muslim demographer, highlight the magnitude of the diabolical dimensions of illegal infiltration. According to a sealed affidavit filed in High Court by Delhi Police the capital alone was reported to have 13 million Bangladeshi infiltrators by September 20032. Their numbers in Kolkata and Mumbai are massively higher.
The government of Bangladesh is fully aware that millions of its citizens are out migrating into India. As highlighted by Baljit Rai in his book, Demographic Aggression Against India, the banner headline of Morning Sun, a Dacca based newspaper, on August 4, 1991, was "One Crore People Missing". The write up discussed the mystery of missing millions, as revealed by 1991 census of Bangladesh. Could there be a more convincing and incontrovertible proof about the massive infiltration of Bangladeshis into India?
Additionally, Bibhuti Bhusan Nandy has provided irrefutable statistical evidence about the scale of illegal infiltration. Almost all Indian districts along Indo-Bangaldesh border have recorded abnormally higher population growth, while the corresponding Bangladesh districts have witnessed equally abnormal low population growth rates. The data cited by Nandy tellingly illustrates the point: Greater Jessore and Greater Khulna districts in Bangladesh showed 1.97 and 1.58 percent growth as against the stupendous growth rate of 3.16 in the adjoining North 24 Parganas. Similarly Greater Mymensingh in Bangladesh recorded 1.89 percent population growth as against 3.16 percent growth in the adjacent district of Garo Hills in Meghalaya. Almost all border districts are going through the same pattern. Many semi-urban areas of West Bengal located close to Bangladesh have experienced a virtual population explosion - Gobardanga (8.64 percent growth), Khardah (9.5%), Raiganj (13.93%), Ashoknagar (7.45%) and Tufanganj (22.45). Nandy's research-based conclusions are further strengthened by the fact that in the decade 1981-1991 there was very low population growth in Hindu-concentrated districts of West Bengal.
Interestingly the average growth rate of urban and semi-urban population for West Bengal during the decade 1981-1991 was barely 2.45 percent.
Simultaneously the border areas recorded explosive population growth. In fact, Nandy hoisted a red alert in January 2005 through his article published in The Statesman, New Delhi that Hindus were moving out "in droves" from border areas after selling their lands and property at throw away prices3. Citing one specific instance of the outlying areas of Nadia district he pointed that 5 years ago Hindus owned 60 percent of agricultural land in that area, but now their share has dwindled to less than 40 percent4. By now large agricultural tracts of Nadia and 24 Praganas districts have been overrun and usurped by Bangladeshi Muslims. Yet no one in the central government cared to take notice of his grim warning.
A Deliberately Ignored Problem
The problem of illegal Bangla immigration has been ignored for decades by our minority-centric and selfish political dispension seeking votes of Muslim minority. It has a long history. Nearly 10 years ago, the present Governor of J. & K., Lt. General J.K. Sinha, during his tenure as Governor of Assam, had sent a 42 page report to the President about the menacing proportions of the problem. He drew pointed attention to the fact that this demographic invasion was creating widespread socio-economic unrest endangering maintenance of public order, apart from constituting a grave danger to the security of the nation. The report drew specific attention to the following facts:
i. The population of Muslims had recorded an abnormal increase of 77.42 percent
since 1971 due to illegal influx. No census could be held in Assam in 1981 due to disturbed conditions;
ii. Four districts of Assam (i.e., Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta and Hailakandi had acquired Muslim majority status. Now their number is seven;
iii Between 1991 and 1997 in 57 of Assam's 126 constituencies the number of voters had increased by more than 20 percent, as against the all India average of near about 7.4 percent.
iv On a conservative estimate the number of illegal Bangladeshis at that time was estimated at 13.2 million including 5.4 million in West Bengal and 4 million in Assam. Now the all India figure is 5 crore infiltrators - even more!
Unfortunately at that time the political class did not pay any heed to the serious problem for reasons best known to itself. And now the chickens have come home to roost in the shape of repetitive jihadi attacks and bomb blasts across the country.
The situation in Assam is much worse today than it was 20 years ago. Two years ago the present Governor of Assam, Lt. General Ajai Singh, had sent a detailed report to the central government highlighting that on an average 6000 Bangladeshis were entering Assam. In other words, nearly 22 lakhs illegal immigrants are entering that state every year. It means that nearly 1.90 crore infiltrators might have entered our country during the last 9 year. Interestingly if Sarifa Begum's figure of 13-14 million Bangladeshis (missing from that country's census 1991) is juxtaposed with the estimate given by the present Governor of Assam it looks quite logical that by now there could be more than 5 crore illegal infiltrators in India - a figure mentioned by more than one participant in the April 2005 seminar in Delhi.
In another detailed report, packed with facts and figures, submitted 8 years ago, in August 2000, by the Working Group on Border Management chaired by Madhav Godbole it was clearly stated that the number of illegal Bangladeshis was around 1.5 crores at that time and that at least 3 lakhs infiltrators were entering India every year. That adds up to a total of 1.7 crore illegal immigrants by now, i.e., year 2005. Incidentally Madhav Godbole was a former Union Home Secretary having impeccable secular credentials which was reflected in his courage of conviction to fault Narasimha Rao regime for failure to use force, including firing, to prevent demolition of Babri structure in 1992.
It is true that no exact figure about the extent of Bangladeshi influx can be given because of the failure of the central government and concerned state governments to draw up a National Register of Indian Citizens, promised decades ago. But that does not mean that the massive problem does not exist. It is very much there, writ large across the country's eastern horizon and visible all over the country even in several metropolitan cities and mofussil towns, situated as far away as Chennai in Tamil Nadu
A grossly belated development is the candid admission of the gravity of situation by the Chief Minister of West Bengal, Buddhadev Bhattacharjee, on June 23, 2005 during a BSF seminar confessing helplessly that illegal immigrants were spreading "the message of Islamic fundamentalism" and that there was a "serious problem with some of our neighbors. He lamented that while "Bangladesh claims that there were no Bangladeshis in India whereas the entire demography of certain parts of the country and West Bengal is being changed due to infiltration. In many places there are more Banglaeshi settlers than Indians5." Earlier the Marxist had always denied that Bangla influx was a genuine problem. Even the UPA appointed Governor of West Bengal, Shri Gopalkrishna Gandhi, proclaimed that relentless infiltration was "a time bomb" - which indeed it is.
Census 2001 revealed many far reaching and worrisome population changes, not only in the north-eastern region and the Marxist-ruled state of West Bengal, but even in the Hindi heartland state of Bihar. For instance, in the geographically crucial state of Assam, the Muslims have already attained the majority status in six districts, i.e., Dhubri (Muslims: 12,16,455, Hindus 4,05,065), Goalpara (Muslims 4,41,516; Hindus 3,14,157), Barpeta (Muslims 9,77,943; Hindus 6,62,066), Nagaon (Muslims 11,80,267: Hindus 11,06,354), Karimganj (Muslims 5,27,214; Hindus 4,70,708) and Hailakundi (Muslims 3,12,844; Hindus 2,23,191)6. As nearly four years have elapsed since the census enumeration took place in 2001, by now another district, Marigaon, is believed to have become a Muslim majority district, thereby taking the tally to seven districts.
Socio-economic Impact of Influx
During last 3 decades there has been a quantum jump in economic distress caused by growing unemployment all over the northeast, especially in Assam. As mentioned by the Chief Minister of Assam in August 2004, there were more than 2 million unemployed youth in Assam alone, an abnormally high figure by national standards. It could be an underestimate because the State's economic survey for 2003-2004 revealed that employment exchanges had 15, 71,996 job-seekers. As a rule the employment exchange figures are under estimated to the extent of 30 to 40 percent because the rural unemployed don't come to register themselves in employment exchanges. Obviously the state has more than 20 to 25 lakhs unemployed youth. Any guess what could be the jobs and livelihood resources usurped by Bangladeshis? Census 2001 had placed the population of Assam at 2, 66, and 55,528. As per census 1991 in Assam the proportion of Assamese speaking was less than 40 percent indicating that they have already become a minority in their ancestral homestead. That should give us an idea of the size of Bangla influx which could be 70 to 80 lakhs. It means that at least 30 to 35 lakhs jobs and livelihood resources have been usurped by Bangladeshis in Assam alone. Both in India and Bangladesh among the poorest sections of society, at least two members of the family (often both father and mother) work to keep the kitchen fires burning. Thus Nandy is not far wrong in saying that by pushing 15 percent of its population into India Bangladesh has imposed a heavy economic burden on Indian citizens. And this burden is borne by the poorest of the poor living on the margin of starvation because they are the first victims of loss of livelihood sources and petty jobs.
The diehard Doubting Thomases and arm chair philosophers of New Delhi, unwilling to accept truth, will do well to undertake a tour of the border districts of Assam and Bangladesh and interact with the original residents of the border villages, now out migrating due to fear. They will come back to Delhi infinitely wiser and sober. Before concluding I must narrate my interface with a retired para military officer belonging to the northeast, barely 5-6 months ago. After an informal interactive session on the escalating violence in the region I was asked by the retired officer whether the central government and mainstream leadership of India would have dared to remain silent spectators if a similar massive influx of Pakistani immigrants had taken place in north India, through Punjab and Rajasthan border. His question foxed me completely. There is a widespread feeling among citizens across the northeast that the government has thrown them to wolves.
Grave Security Implications for Indian Nation
The dirty role of the ruling political dispensation of Bangladesh, acting in cahoots with the ISI of Pakistan for undermining the security and sovereignty of Indian nation is well known. Pakistan’s role in promoting jihad against India, through trained terrorists, can be ignored only at great peril to the security of Indian citizens. The possibility of carrying out jihad against India through the Indo-Pakistan frontier in north-west has been substantially reduced during the last 6 / 7 years due to the following reasons:
i) Extensive fencing along the Indo-Pakistan border and the line of control has significantly reduced the scope for large scale infiltration, excepting the State of Jammu & Kashmir, and attempts at waging proxy war against India.
ii) After 9/11 the extensive presence of US intelligence sleuths in Pakistan has made it difficult for the ISI to openly carry out anti-India campaigns through Punjab and / or Rajasthan border.
iii) After the Kargil war, India has increased the level of vigil on Indo-Pakistan Border, especially in J & K State, thus making the task of large scale Infiltration into India or mounting Jihadi campaigns for undermining India’s security.
In the circumstances, Pakistan has fine tuned its old strategy of waging the ‘war of a thousand cuts’ against India by shifting ISI’s focus to infiltration of thousands of Jihadi warriors and spies through the porous Indo-Bangladesh border. No wonder, in recent years presently Bangladesh has become the major operational ground for waging proxy war against India. Pakistan’s ISI and Al Qaeda have a grand design to set up a caliphate from Indonesia to the Balkans through Malayasia, Thailand, Bangladesh, via India and through Pakistan right into the Balkans. In this global Islamic design India is the only bulwark, populated by non-Muslims, against the Islamic dream of a trans-Asian caliphate. In this gigantic endeavor a number of Jihadi organizations like HUJI-B (i.e., Harkat-ul-Jihad-e Islami Bangladesh), Jamat-e-Islami, Okiya Jote, duly aided by Assam-based militant outfits like Muslim Liberation Tigers of Assam, Islamic Liberation Army of Assam, Muslim Security Force, Al Jihad-e Islami and Adam Sena, have joined hands to make an attempt at tearing away Assam and some other parts of north-east from the Indian Republic. In fact, HUJI-B was clearly involved in the year 2002 terror attack on American Center in Kolkata. In recent year names of Jihadi operators belonging to HUJI-B are believed to have been involved in attack on Sankat Mochan temple, Varanasi, in 2006, Mumbai bomb blasts, twin blasts in Hyderabad last year and the latest bomb blasts in Jaipur, Rajasthan. Recently in the first week of March 2008, the U.S. government has declared HUJI-B as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (F.T.O.).
An important instance of the perfidy of Bangladesh-based jihadis attacking Indian civilization was the dastardly attack on the make-shift Ramjanambhoomi temple on July 5, 2005, which was planned in Bangladesh. One of the masterminds was Maqbool Hussain, a Dhubri born Jaish-e-Mohammad jihadi terrorist and a close confidante of the notorious Maulana Azhar Masood, chief of JeM. Maqbool was arrested on October 29, 2005, by Delhi Police along with his associate Adnan a Pakistani national and seasoned jihadi warrior. Originally from Assam, Maqbool had taken up residence in Dhaka and used to operate under different identities. The code name assigned to him by JeM was Zahid, while in Bangladesh he was known as Anwar. After traveling to Karachi on forged documents Maqbool had even met Masood Azhar at Bahawalpur. He had studied for 5 years at the great fount of jihadi terrorism, Deoband in India from 1992 to 1997. Similarly one of the masterminds of Sankatmochan bomb blast at Varanasi in March 2006, the Pesh Imam of a mosque in Allahabad (U.P.), too, had studied at Dar-ul-uloom, Deoband and had allegedly a Bangladesh connection.
Tackling the Growing Menace of Infiltration
To be candid till date neither the Central Government, nor the State Government has ever tried to tackle the problem in a serious manner. The problem is not totally intractable, provided we do some out of box thinking. The following steps can substantially alter the scenario.
1. Apart from making a concerted attempt across the country to identify and deport all Bangladeshi infiltrators, a crash programme of resettling ex-servicemen and retired personnel of para military personnel all along Indo Bangladesh border should be undertaken. A well-planned string of ‘Sentinel Settlements’ of ex-servicemen should be set up along the Indo-Bangladesh border. As far as possible, the settlers should be from the north-eastern region itself. But they must be financially supported by the government to buy farmland and licensed arms for defending their farms / orchards and the adjoining border areas. For better management and prompt results, cooperatives of ‘sentinel settlements’ should be patterned on the Israeli concept of “armed kibbutz”. The settlers must be fully armed and well-equipped to take on the Jihadi infiltrators. In due course of time, such ‘sentinel settlements’ should be set up along all our borders, including Indo-Pak border in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Punjab – even Himachal Pradesh border adjacent to Doda-Kishtwar region of Jammu & Kashmir.
2. It is time that the Government of India enacted and enforced a stringent law prohibiting employment of any ‘illegal foreigner’, as has been done by the Government of United Kingdom. Like United Kingdom, a law should be enacted for imposing on-the-spot fine of Rs. fifty thousand on all those who give employment to any foreigner. Under the British law, titled The Immigration, Asylum and Nationality Act, passed in 2006, an employer giving a job to any illegal immigrant is liable to be fined 2000 pounds (equivalent of Rs. 1, 60,000 Indian currency) on the spot every time an illegal immigrant is employed. Also finger printing of all suspected illegal immigrants should be made compulsory. If governments of U.K. and several other countries can enact such laws, why cannot India do that? In the Indian law a provision should also be incorporated for punishing all illegal immigrants taking up a job or occupation in India, without obtaining a prior permission from central government. That would make it more stringent and deter all attempts at infiltration.
3. The long pending task of registration of all Indian nationals should be completed at an early date. It should be done first and foremost in Assam, West Bengal and all north-eastern States. Every Indian citizen should be issued a Photo-ID card and there should be full documentation of all foreigners, legal as well as illegal. This high priority task should be implemented without delay.
4. Another important measure to counter the menace will be motivate the people to boycott Bangladeshi hawkers, vendors and Rickshaw-pullers, as was done by a vigilant youth group of Dibrugarh, known as Chiring Chapori Yuva Manch, in May 2005 which made thousand of infiltrators flee from that district. In fact, public opinion needs to be mobilized across the country to boycott all Bangladeshi infiltrators by denying them jobs, residential accommodation and refusing to have any dealings with them.
***
References:
1. Prakash Singh, Bangladeshi Immigration: Are we heading for another partition?
Dialogue, New Delhi (a journal of Ashta Bharati), October 2001, Vol. 3, No.2, p.37.
2. Bhadra Sinha, Can't deport Bangladeshi immigrants, Times of India, New Delhi, September 25, 203.
3. Bibhuti Bhusan Nandy, Secular Claims, The Statesman, New Delhi, January 25, 2005.
4. Ibid.
5. A news item, 'Bengal CM speaks BJP lingo, assails influx from Bangladesh' Times of
India, New Delhi, June 24, 2005, p.1.
P.S. The writer is a former Inspector General of Police who has served in the Northeast.
Copyright @ R.K. Ohri
