By Shri R.K. Ohri, IPS (Retd.)
Secretary General of Patriots' Forum
During the last several decades, a lot of disinformation has been propagated across the world, especially in developing countries, that any increase in population per se is an impediment to economic development. Malthusian theory was used as the medium for spreading this disinformation. Truth, however, is altogether different. Manpower or human resource is a great asset for economic development. But there is an important caveat: the population must be educated and invested with professional skills. The real roadblocks to economic development are illiteracy and lack of skill. Youthful population, if it is educated and skilled, is the biggest harbinger of enhanced productivity and higher Gross Domestic Product.
It will surprise many that the latest threat to the humankind does not emanate from over-population; it comes from too few new arrivals, a phenomenon which will soon lead to depopulation of many countries. Here is a birds-eye view of some significant demographic indicators:
a) In the year 1900, the Muslims constituted only 12 percent of the world population; they grew to 18 percent in 1993 (when Huntington published his first thesis on the clash of civilization); by 2004 the Muslims formed 20 percent of global population. And by 2025, barely 20 years away from now, they will constitute 30 percent of world population.[Source: Spangler, The Decline of the West, cited by Samuel Huntington]. According to some demographic estimates, they could be anything between 37 to 40 percent of world population by 2100 AD.
b) After invention of contraceptives, all over world, except Muslim countries, fertility levels have sharply declined by more than half since 1972 – from 6 children per woman in 1972 to 2.9 in 1990s. According to the United Nations Population Report of 2002, Europe’s fertility rates are now far below the replacement level of 2.1. Population of Russia is decreasing by 7500,000 every year and President Vladimir Putin considers it a ‘national crisis’. The population of Germany could go down by one-fifth in the next 40 years, Bulgaria’s by 38 percent and Romania’s by 27 percent. Muslim countries, however, are striking exceptions to the global trend of declining population. In Europe, Albania and Kosovo are growing fast, and so are Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Pakistan and Afghanistan in Asia.
c) Unfortunately, a majority of elite and opinion-makers fail to take note of the weird phenomenon of “demographic decimation” which destroyed the secular and multicultural ethos of Lebanon, Kosovo, Bosnia, etc., where fast population growth of Muslims outpaced the Christian numbers. A similar demographic change now threatens the pluralistic and secular ethos of Macedonia and France. In Macedonia, the Muslims were only 8 percent in the year 1900 but now they form 33 percent of the total population. In France between 1970 and 1990, the Christian population declined by 2 millions, from 425,58,000 to 406,27,000, while Muslims multiplied 3 times, from 1,353,000 to 3,850,000 in the same period. The recent orgy of car-burning and violence by Muslim youth in France is to a large extent rooted in the changing demography of France.
d) Niall Ferguson, a strategic analyst who teaches contemporary history at Harvard, wrote in The Sunday Times, London, in April 2004, that in another 50 years time Europe was likely to become a Muslim majority continent. He pointed out that the birth rates of Muslim societies (i.e., including those Muslims who live in non-Muslim countries) are more than double the European average.
e) Citing the example of Yemen, Niall Ferguson has pointed out that by 2050 its population could exceed that of Russia (based on United Nations forecast and assuming the current fertility rate). In the far away Norway, the Muslim population quantum jumped 75 times within 23 years (from 1980 to 2003), rising from 1000 in 1980 to 75000 plus in 2003!
f) The plight of Christian Europe is reflected in another demographer (Mark Steyn)’s article, “It is the demography, stupid” which reads almost like “Dirge of the Dying Europe”.
Now, let us look at the Indian scenario as revealed in the data of last six Censuses held in India since 1951 and some other relevant studies:
i) Census 2001 disclosed that the decadal growth rate of Muslims was around 36 percent, while the same for the Hindus was 20 percent, a decline from 23 percent.
ii) Since independence, in percentage terms there has been a steady increase in the population of the Muslims, to the exclusion of every other religious group. The percentage growth of all other communities, e.g., Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains and Christians has been in a declining mode.
iii) Statement 7 of Census 2001 Religion Data Report (page Xlii), which gives the religion-wise breakup of children in the 0-6 years age group, shows that even though the Muslims constitute only 13.4 percent of India’s population, the percentage of Muslim cohorts (term commonly used in demographic parlance) is 21 percent higher than Hindu cohorts. These 0-6 yrs old cohorts could be expected to become reproductively active between 2011 and 2016 and then continue to reproduce for the next 30-40 years. With a 21 percent higher cohort population and at least 25-30 percent less acceptance of family planning, the growth in Muslims population during the next 4 decades is likely to become even more fast paced.
iv) The biggest quantum jump in Muslim population (in terms of percentage) in the coming decades will take place in Haryana where the ratio of Muslim cohorts is almost 60 percent higher than Hindu cohorts! Next in descending order will be Assam, West Bengal, Delhi, Nagaland, and so on.
(Note: The upward growth rate of Muslim population in India as shown in Census 2001 is
a) In the year 1900, the Muslims constituted only 12 percent of the world population; they grew to 18 percent in 1993 (when Huntington published his first thesis on the clash of civilization); by 2004 the Muslims formed 20 percent of global population. And by 2025, barely 20 years away from now, they will constitute 30 percent of world population.[Source: Spangler, The Decline of the West, cited by Samuel Huntington]. According to some demographic estimates, they could be anything between 37 to 40 percent of world population by 2100 AD.
b) After invention of contraceptives, all over world, except Muslim countries, fertility levels have sharply declined by more than half since 1972 – from 6 children per woman in 1972 to 2.9 in 1990s. According to the United Nations Population Report of 2002, Europe’s fertility rates are now far below the replacement level of 2.1. Population of Russia is decreasing by 7500,000 every year and President Vladimir Putin considers it a ‘national crisis’. The population of Germany could go down by one-fifth in the next 40 years, Bulgaria’s by 38 percent and Romania’s by 27 percent. Muslim countries, however, are striking exceptions to the global trend of declining population. In Europe, Albania and Kosovo are growing fast, and so are Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Pakistan and Afghanistan in Asia.
c) Unfortunately, a majority of elite and opinion-makers fail to take note of the weird phenomenon of “demographic decimation” which destroyed the secular and multicultural ethos of Lebanon, Kosovo, Bosnia, etc., where fast population growth of Muslims outpaced the Christian numbers. A similar demographic change now threatens the pluralistic and secular ethos of Macedonia and France. In Macedonia, the Muslims were only 8 percent in the year 1900 but now they form 33 percent of the total population. In France between 1970 and 1990, the Christian population declined by 2 millions, from 425,58,000 to 406,27,000, while Muslims multiplied 3 times, from 1,353,000 to 3,850,000 in the same period. The recent orgy of car-burning and violence by Muslim youth in France is to a large extent rooted in the changing demography of France.
d) Niall Ferguson, a strategic analyst who teaches contemporary history at Harvard, wrote in The Sunday Times, London, in April 2004, that in another 50 years time Europe was likely to become a Muslim majority continent. He pointed out that the birth rates of Muslim societies (i.e., including those Muslims who live in non-Muslim countries) are more than double the European average.
e) Citing the example of Yemen, Niall Ferguson has pointed out that by 2050 its population could exceed that of Russia (based on United Nations forecast and assuming the current fertility rate). In the far away Norway, the Muslim population quantum jumped 75 times within 23 years (from 1980 to 2003), rising from 1000 in 1980 to 75000 plus in 2003!
f) The plight of Christian Europe is reflected in another demographer (Mark Steyn)’s article, “It is the demography, stupid” which reads almost like “Dirge of the Dying Europe”.
Now, let us look at the Indian scenario as revealed in the data of last six Censuses held in India since 1951 and some other relevant studies:
i) Census 2001 disclosed that the decadal growth rate of Muslims was around 36 percent, while the same for the Hindus was 20 percent, a decline from 23 percent.
ii) Since independence, in percentage terms there has been a steady increase in the population of the Muslims, to the exclusion of every other religious group. The percentage growth of all other communities, e.g., Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains and Christians has been in a declining mode.
iii) Statement 7 of Census 2001 Religion Data Report (page Xlii), which gives the religion-wise breakup of children in the 0-6 years age group, shows that even though the Muslims constitute only 13.4 percent of India’s population, the percentage of Muslim cohorts (term commonly used in demographic parlance) is 21 percent higher than Hindu cohorts. These 0-6 yrs old cohorts could be expected to become reproductively active between 2011 and 2016 and then continue to reproduce for the next 30-40 years. With a 21 percent higher cohort population and at least 25-30 percent less acceptance of family planning, the growth in Muslims population during the next 4 decades is likely to become even more fast paced.
iv) The biggest quantum jump in Muslim population (in terms of percentage) in the coming decades will take place in Haryana where the ratio of Muslim cohorts is almost 60 percent higher than Hindu cohorts! Next in descending order will be Assam, West Bengal, Delhi, Nagaland, and so on.
(Note: The upward growth rate of Muslim population in India as shown in Census 2001 is
despite the fact that the figures exclude the population of the two most Muslim-dominated
States, namely, Assam& J&K)
v) A further analysis reveals that out of 35 States and Union Territories listed in Statement 7, the percentage of Muslim 0-6 yrs. cohorts is higher than Hindus in as many 31 States and U.Ts.
vi) According to two well known professional demographers, P N Mari Bhat and A J Francis Zavier, "the fertility of Muslims, which was about 10 per cent higher than that of Hindus before independence, is now 25 to 30 per cent higher than the Hindu rate". [Source: Role of Religion in Fertility Decline: The Case of Indian Muslims, Economic & Political Weekly January 29, 2005.]
vii) There is no truth in the assertion that higher Muslim fertility was due to their poverty or illiteracy. Since 36 percent Muslims live in urban areas, as against only 26 percent Hindus, (and Muslims have a higher life expectancy at birth than Hindus by 1.2 years according to 2 NFHS Surveys), logically their fertility should have been lower than Hindus. But the situation on the ground showed that the fertility of Muslim continues to be higher despite their greater urbanization.
viii) According to 2 NFHS (National Family Health Surveys) held in 1992 and 1998, on an average the acceptance of family planning among Muslims was at least 25 percent lower than the Hindus. That means from 2011 onwards for the next 30-40 years, the population growth rate of Muslims could possibly be much more fast than it has been witnessed during the last 2 decades.
ix) According to NFHS Survey-2 (National Family Health Survey-2 of 1998), even in Kerala where the literacy level of 2 communities is almost equal (and due to large Gulf remittances economically Muslims are far better off than Hindus), the growth rate of Muslims is much higher than Hindus - by almost 50 percent.
x) The National Family Health Survey-2 (1998) has pointed out that on an average every Muslim woman was giving birth to 1.2 more children than her Hindu counterpart.
All these will help one understand the reason that has recently prompted the Prime Minister of U.K., Tony Blair, to advise all British couples to opt for 5 children norm, why in recent years most European countries have announced liberal cash bonuses to those couples who opt to have more children, why Peter Costello, Australia's Chancellor of the Exchequer gave a clarion call to his countrymen that every couple must have at least 3 children, preferably many more, stipulating “one child for father, one for the mother and one for the country”. Apprehensive of the population growth of Jihad-infested Indonesia, he announced an incentive of 2000 Australian dollars for every child born after June 2004. (Source: Hindustan Times, May 13, 2004, p.1). Prima facie many keen observers of global population trends like Tony Blair, Niall Ferguson, Bernard Lewis, Robert Costello and Mark Steyn, are now alerting their countrymen about the threat posed by demographic changes across the world.
It is, therefore, time that the opinion makers in India understand the long term climactic consequences of the existential demographic crisis writ large across the Indian horizon. In a different context, while analyzing socio-economic aspects of the latest Census, the well known demographer, Prof. Ashish Bose, has estimated that presently in 49 districts Muslims already constitute more than 30 percent of population. (Source: Economic and Political Weekly, Mumbai, January 29, 2005, p.371 (table 4). A back-of-the envelope calculation made in the light of the Muslim growth rate of the last two decades, shows that Muslims will attain majority status in all these 49 districts, any time between 2091 and 2111, perhaps even earlier. Just now Muslims are in majority in 12 districts to which another 37 may be added by the end of the century, even earlier. What might happen thereafter is anybody’s guess. It has the potential to give a massive fillip to the growing jihadi fervour in the sub-continent.
v) A further analysis reveals that out of 35 States and Union Territories listed in Statement 7, the percentage of Muslim 0-6 yrs. cohorts is higher than Hindus in as many 31 States and U.Ts.
vi) According to two well known professional demographers, P N Mari Bhat and A J Francis Zavier, "the fertility of Muslims, which was about 10 per cent higher than that of Hindus before independence, is now 25 to 30 per cent higher than the Hindu rate". [Source: Role of Religion in Fertility Decline: The Case of Indian Muslims, Economic & Political Weekly January 29, 2005.]
vii) There is no truth in the assertion that higher Muslim fertility was due to their poverty or illiteracy. Since 36 percent Muslims live in urban areas, as against only 26 percent Hindus, (and Muslims have a higher life expectancy at birth than Hindus by 1.2 years according to 2 NFHS Surveys), logically their fertility should have been lower than Hindus. But the situation on the ground showed that the fertility of Muslim continues to be higher despite their greater urbanization.
viii) According to 2 NFHS (National Family Health Surveys) held in 1992 and 1998, on an average the acceptance of family planning among Muslims was at least 25 percent lower than the Hindus. That means from 2011 onwards for the next 30-40 years, the population growth rate of Muslims could possibly be much more fast than it has been witnessed during the last 2 decades.
ix) According to NFHS Survey-2 (National Family Health Survey-2 of 1998), even in Kerala where the literacy level of 2 communities is almost equal (and due to large Gulf remittances economically Muslims are far better off than Hindus), the growth rate of Muslims is much higher than Hindus - by almost 50 percent.
x) The National Family Health Survey-2 (1998) has pointed out that on an average every Muslim woman was giving birth to 1.2 more children than her Hindu counterpart.
All these will help one understand the reason that has recently prompted the Prime Minister of U.K., Tony Blair, to advise all British couples to opt for 5 children norm, why in recent years most European countries have announced liberal cash bonuses to those couples who opt to have more children, why Peter Costello, Australia's Chancellor of the Exchequer gave a clarion call to his countrymen that every couple must have at least 3 children, preferably many more, stipulating “one child for father, one for the mother and one for the country”. Apprehensive of the population growth of Jihad-infested Indonesia, he announced an incentive of 2000 Australian dollars for every child born after June 2004. (Source: Hindustan Times, May 13, 2004, p.1). Prima facie many keen observers of global population trends like Tony Blair, Niall Ferguson, Bernard Lewis, Robert Costello and Mark Steyn, are now alerting their countrymen about the threat posed by demographic changes across the world.
It is, therefore, time that the opinion makers in India understand the long term climactic consequences of the existential demographic crisis writ large across the Indian horizon. In a different context, while analyzing socio-economic aspects of the latest Census, the well known demographer, Prof. Ashish Bose, has estimated that presently in 49 districts Muslims already constitute more than 30 percent of population. (Source: Economic and Political Weekly, Mumbai, January 29, 2005, p.371 (table 4). A back-of-the envelope calculation made in the light of the Muslim growth rate of the last two decades, shows that Muslims will attain majority status in all these 49 districts, any time between 2091 and 2111, perhaps even earlier. Just now Muslims are in majority in 12 districts to which another 37 may be added by the end of the century, even earlier. What might happen thereafter is anybody’s guess. It has the potential to give a massive fillip to the growing jihadi fervour in the sub-continent.
The foregoing cold facts should ring a loud alarm bell to wake up all those who want to ensure long term survival of secularism in India. As earlier seen, the problem has global dimensions, too. It is unfortunate that while the world has woken up to the threat of rapidly changing demography, we Indians have remained comatose.
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